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CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

121.23%

increased by 17.16%

1 Week

121.46%

increased by 17.39%

1 Month

121.83%

increased by 17.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.76 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst59.1384
4.15***
αARCH0.1645
4.48***
βGARCH0.8389
20.37***
νDF4.7627
1.77*

0.839

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

59.1384
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1645
4.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8389
20.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7627
1.77*

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days