CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
127.77%
decreased by 25.13%
1 Week
126.25%
decreased by 26.65%
1 Month
123.80%
decreased by 29.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 59.2320 | 4.21*** |
| αscore | 0.1650 | 4.48*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8380 | 20.51*** |
| νDF | 4.8112 | 1.74* |
0.838
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 59.2320 | 4.21*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1650 | 4.48*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8380 | 20.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8112 | 1.74* |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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