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CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

120.96%

increased by 9.54%

1 Week

121.31%

increased by 9.89%

1 Month

121.88%

increased by 10.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

59.3089
16.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1647
17.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8394
80.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7402
7.10***

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days