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CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

127.77%

decreased by 25.13%

1 Week

126.25%

decreased by 26.65%

1 Month

123.80%

decreased by 29.10%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run59.2320
4.21***
αscore0.1650
4.48***
βpersistence0.8380
20.51***
νDF4.8112
1.74*

0.838

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

59.2320
4.21***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1650
4.48***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8380
20.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8112
1.74*

Persistence:

0.838

Half-life:

4 days