SMI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
80.78%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
81.35%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Month
83.00%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to May 13, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 29.6996 | 12.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 23.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9487 | 235.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5095 | 5.95*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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