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SMI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

82.59%

decreased by 5.73%

1 Week

82.95%

decreased by 5.37%

1 Month

83.99%

decreased by 4.33%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifev = 5.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst29.5018
3.27***
αARCH0.0880
5.96***
βGARCH0.9486
59.43***
νDF5.5269
1.49

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.5018
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
5.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9486
59.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.5269
1.49

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days