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SMI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

80.78%

decreased by 1.91%

1 Week

81.35%

decreased by 1.34%

1 Month

83.00%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to May 13, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.6996
12.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0881
23.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9487
235.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.5095
5.95***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days