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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

103.71%

decreased by 8.26%

1 Week

104.37%

decreased by 7.60%

1 Month

105.90%

decreased by 6.07%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

46.0797
9.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0848
12.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9122
86.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8628
3.63***

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days