V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
103.71%
decreased by 8.26%
1 Week
104.37%
decreased by 7.60%
1 Month
105.90%
decreased by 6.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 46.0797 | 9.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0848 | 12.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9122 | 86.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8628 | 3.63*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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