V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
108.50%
increased by 15.46%
1 Week
108.40%
increased by 15.36%
1 Month
108.15%
increased by 15.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 46.1661 | 10.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0862 | 12.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9113 | 86.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8596 | 3.69*** |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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