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CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

108.50%

increased by 15.46%

1 Week

108.40%

increased by 15.36%

1 Month

108.15%

increased by 15.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

46.1661
10.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0862
12.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9113
86.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8596
3.69***

Persistence:

0.911

Half-life:

7 days