V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
88.72%
increased by 1.89%
1 Week
96.97%
increased by 10.14%
1 Month
104.11%
increased by 17.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.14) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.7026 | 39.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1320 | 31.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5822 | 137.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -4.1380 | -19.34*** |
Persistence:
0.714
Half-life:
2 days
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