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V-Lab

CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

88.72%

increased by 1.89%

1 Week

96.97%

increased by 10.14%

1 Month

104.11%

increased by 17.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.14) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.7026
39.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1320
31.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5822
137.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-4.1380
-19.34***

Persistence:

0.714

Half-life:

2 days