V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
87.75%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Week
91.45%
increased by 1.95%
1 Month
98.77%
increased by 9.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7405 | 17.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1499 | 13.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8112 | 103.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1366 | -9.23*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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