V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA High Yield 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
116.83%
increased by 21.13%
1 Week
114.76%
increased by 19.06%
1 Month
110.29%
increased by 14.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7564 | 17.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1508 | 13.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8104 | 103.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1371 | -9.25*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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