V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
126.77%
decreased by 11.25%
1 Week
122.03%
decreased by 15.99%
1 Month
109.29%
decreased by 28.73%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3164 | 4.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1620 | 2.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8112 | 31.34*** |
| γleverage | -0.0983 | -0.86 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3164 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1620 | 2.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8112 | 31.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0983 | -0.86 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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