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V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

107.52%

decreased by 7.62%

1 Week

104.92%

decreased by 10.22%

1 Month

98.16%

decreased by 16.98%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 150% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3195
16.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1617
10.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8105
124.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0970
-3.38***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days