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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

67.64%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

70.88%

increased by 0.95%

1 Month

78.28%

increased by 8.35%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3957
4.23***
αARCH0.1644
2.64***
βGARCH0.8061
29.72***
γleverage-0.0987
-0.84

0.921

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3957
4.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1644
2.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8061
29.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0987
-0.84

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days