V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
107.52%
decreased by 7.62%
1 Week
104.92%
decreased by 10.22%
1 Month
98.16%
decreased by 16.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 150% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3195 | 16.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1617 | 10.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8105 | 124.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0970 | -3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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