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V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

195.84%

decreased by 20.25%

1 Week

184.05%

decreased by 32.04%

1 Month

151.19%

decreased by 64.90%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 153% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3619
16.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1616
10.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8085
119.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0976
-3.33***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days