CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
195.84%
decreased by 20.25%
1 Week
184.05%
decreased by 32.04%
1 Month
151.19%
decreased by 64.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 153% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3619 | 16.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1616 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8085 | 119.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0976 | -3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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