V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
67.64%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Week
70.88%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
78.28%
increased by 8.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3957 | 4.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1644 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8061 | 29.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.0987 | -0.84 |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3957 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1644 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8061 | 29.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0987 | -0.84 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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