CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
82.67%
increased by 13.83%
1 Week
83.41%
increased by 14.57%
1 Month
85.17%
increased by 16.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4222 | 4.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1671 | 2.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8033 | 29.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.1000 | -0.85 |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4222 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1671 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8033 | 29.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1000 | -0.85 |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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