V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
149.83%
increased by 63.97%
1 Week
142.66%
increased by 56.80%
1 Month
122.98%
increased by 37.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3154 | 4.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.1610 | 2.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8111 | 31.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0970 | -0.85 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3154 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1610 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8111 | 31.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0970 | -0.85 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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