V-Lab
JSE Securities South African Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
62.86%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
63.05%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
63.58%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2007 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9570 | 4.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1125 | 5.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8297 | 32.79*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9570 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1125 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8297 | 32.79*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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