V-Lab
JSE Securities South African Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
85.97%
decreased by 6.72%
1 Week
83.94%
decreased by 8.75%
1 Month
78.02%
decreased by 14.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2007 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9446 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1118 | 5.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8313 | 32.99*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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