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V-Lab

JSE Securities South African Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

62.86%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

63.05%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

63.58%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of JSE Securities South African Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 1, 2007 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9570
4.28***
αARCH0.1125
5.25***
βGARCH0.8297
32.79***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9570
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1125
5.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8297
32.79***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days