V-Lab
CBOE IBM Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
103.51%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
105.83%
increased by 1.40%
1 Month
110.93%
increased by 6.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 03:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.0412 | 2.16** |
| βGARCH | 0.8661 | 15.89*** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0412 | 2.16** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 15.89*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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