CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
96.65%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
98.10%
increased by 1.74%
1 Month
102.83%
increased by 6.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 0.99 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2407 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 16.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 202.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -14.69*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9913 | 14.65*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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