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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

54.41%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

61.19%

increased by 6.10%

1 Month

71.95%

increased by 16.86%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0176
9.29***
αARCH0.2096
7.03***
βGARCH0.6570
15.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.11

0.867

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0176
9.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2096
7.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6570
15.89***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.11

Persistence:

0.867

Half-life:

5 days