CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
51.60%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
59.20%
increased by 6.48%
1 Month
71.08%
increased by 18.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0222 | 9.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.2101 | 7.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6572 | 15.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.07 |
0.867
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0222 | 9.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2101 | 7.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6572 | 15.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0000 | -0.07 |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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