V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
59.49%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
64.83%
increased by 5.27%
1 Month
73.58%
increased by 14.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0129 | 9.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2102 | 7.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6560 | 15.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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