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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

51.60%

decreased by 1.12%

1 Week

59.20%

increased by 6.48%

1 Month

71.08%

increased by 18.36%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0222
9.31***
αARCH0.2101
7.06***
βGARCH0.6572
15.96***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
-0.07

0.867

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0222
9.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2101
7.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6572
15.96***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0000
-0.07

Persistence:

0.867

Half-life:

5 days