V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
69.11%
increased by 8.08%
1 Week
71.81%
increased by 10.78%
1 Month
76.52%
increased by 15.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0100 | 9.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2096 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6574 | 15.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.20 |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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