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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

159.08%

decreased by 13.03%

1 Week

166.80%

decreased by 5.31%

1 Month

178.77%

increased by 6.66%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2002
9.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1989
7.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6464
15.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0414
-4.72***
γ20.0754
5.33***
γ3-0.0529
-3.51***

Persistence:

0.845

Half-life:

4 days