V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
159.08%
decreased by 13.03%
1 Week
166.80%
decreased by 5.31%
1 Month
178.77%
increased by 6.66%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2002 | 9.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1989 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6464 | 15.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0414 | -4.72*** |
| γ2 | 0.0754 | 5.33*** |
| γ3 | -0.0529 | -3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
Other CBOE S&P 500 Left Tail Volatility Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices