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V-Lab

CBOE Skew Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

54.17%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

53.82%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

53.36%

decreased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Skew Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9422
4.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2668
11.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5261
15.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.1046
2.36**
γ2-0.0605
-1.02
γ3-0.0908
-2.15**
γ40.1449
3.32***
γ5-0.2227
-5.83***
γ60.2276
6.14***
γ7-0.1389
-4.10***
γ8-0.0191
-0.56
γ90.1331
3.29***
γ10-0.1121
-1.77*

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days