V-Lab
CBOE Skew Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
38.68%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
39.03%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
40.36%
increased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 164% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0830 | 13.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1619 | 22.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8835 | 314.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1005 | -9.72*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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