V-Lab
CBOE Skew Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
41.96%
decreased by 2.30%
1 Week
42.24%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Month
43.34%
decreased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 165% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0782 | 13.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1567 | 22.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8878 | 329.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0975 | -9.80*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
161 days
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