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V-Lab

CBOE Skew Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

38.68%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

39.03%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

40.36%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Skew Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 164% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0830
13.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1619
22.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8835
314.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1005
-9.72***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

143 days