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CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

23.75%

decreased by 1.82%

1 Week

26.31%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

32.39%

increased by 6.82%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.9622
8.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1695
25.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9432
142.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8776
9.89***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days