V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.75%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Week
26.31%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
32.39%
increased by 6.82%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.9622 | 8.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1695 | 25.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9432 | 142.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8776 | 9.89*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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