V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.48%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
28.96%
increased by 3.52%
1 Month
34.58%
increased by 9.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2231 | 8.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2442 | 7.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6281 | 16.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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