CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.38%
decreased by 3.01%
1 Week
33.55%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
38.18%
increased by 3.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.40) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2700 | 9.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1883 | 30.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7256 | 113.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.4033 | -17.59*** |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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