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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

31.38%

decreased by 3.01%

1 Week

33.55%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

38.18%

increased by 3.79%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.40) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2700
9.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1883
30.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7256
113.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.4033
-17.59***

Persistence:

0.914

Half-life:

8 days