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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

155.19%

increased by 28.76%

1 Week

151.18%

increased by 24.75%

1 Month

142.16%

increased by 15.73%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5397
13.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1083
27.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8310
85.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-65.18***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8364
24.35***

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days