CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
155.19%
increased by 28.76%
1 Week
151.18%
increased by 24.75%
1 Month
142.16%
increased by 15.73%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 0.84 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5397 | 13.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 27.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8310 | 85.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -65.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8364 | 24.35*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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