Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

96.57%

increased by 4.32%

1 Week

102.31%

increased by 10.06%

1 Month

115.65%

increased by 23.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 0.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifeδ = 0.85 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5525
3.26***
αARCH0.1083
6.73***
βGARCH0.8300
21.29***
γleverage-1.0000
-14.60***
δpower0.8471
6.16***

0.907

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5525
3.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1083
6.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8300
21.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-14.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8471
6.16***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days