CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
96.57%
1 Week
102.31%
1 Month
115.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 0.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5525 | 3.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.1083 | 6.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8300 | 21.29*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -14.60*** |
| δpower | 0.8471 | 6.16*** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5525 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 6.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8300 | 21.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -14.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8471 | 6.16*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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