V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
264.32%
decreased by 12.53%
1 Week
275.34%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Month
290.29%
increased by 13.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6970 | 5.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1338 | 7.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6805 | 15.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.0147 | 0.77 |
| γ3 | -0.0554 | -3.73*** |
| γ4 | 0.0974 | 4.31*** |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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