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CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

207.01%

increased by 37.89%

1 Week

209.75%

increased by 40.63%

1 Month

217.52%

increased by 48.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

217.3111
9.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1199
20.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9495
179.97***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6180
6.50***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days