V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
207.01%
increased by 37.89%
1 Week
209.75%
increased by 40.63%
1 Month
217.52%
increased by 48.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 217.3111 | 9.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 20.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9495 | 179.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6180 | 6.50*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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