CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
202.80%
decreased by 13.11%
1 Week
205.74%
decreased by 10.17%
1 Month
214.05%
decreased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 5.67 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 215.8233 | 2.52** |
| αscore | 0.1180 | 5.20*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9500 | 45.91*** |
| νDF | 5.6731 | 1.59 |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 215.8233 | 2.52** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1180 | 5.20*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 45.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6731 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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