CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
237.70%
1 Week
237.27%
1 Month
236.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1918 | 8.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7700 | 19.07*** |
| γleverage | -0.1718 | -3.55*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1339 | 0.96 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0039 | 1.16 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9955 | 262.74*** |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1918 | 8.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7700 | 19.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1718 | -3.55*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1339 | 0.96 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0039 | 1.16 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9955 | 262.74*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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