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CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

194.94%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Week

205.46%

increased by 8.96%

1 Month

223.83%

increased by 27.33%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.1916
8.40***
βGARCH0.7690
18.94***
γleverage-0.1715
-3.55***
λ₁tau intercept0.1309
0.96
λ₂forecast adj.0.0039
1.18
λ₃tau persistence0.9955
265.33***

0.875

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1916
8.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7690
18.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1715
-3.55***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1309
0.96
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0039
1.18
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9955
265.33***

Persistence:

0.875

Half-life:

5 days