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CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

212.45%

decreased by 2.86%

1 Week

219.26%

increased by 3.95%

1 Month

231.01%

increased by 15.70%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.1913
8.39***
βGARCH0.7683
18.89***
γleverage-0.1707
-3.54***
λ₁tau intercept0.1294
0.96
λ₂forecast adj.0.0039
1.18
λ₃tau persistence0.9955
266.18***

0.874

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1913
8.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7683
18.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1707
-3.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1294
0.96
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0039
1.18
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9955
266.18***

Persistence:

0.874

Half-life:

5 days