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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

242.84%

increased by 45.40%

1 Week

242.91%

increased by 45.47%

1 Month

243.41%

increased by 45.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1908
35.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7686
72.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1703
-13.26***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1267
1.43
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0040
1.75*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9955
379.95***

Persistence:

0.874

Half-life:

5 days