V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
219.69%
1 Week
221.30%
1 Month
226.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6413 | 2.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0903 | 4.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8839 | 40.87*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -3.14*** |
| δpower | 0.9794 | 6.98*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6413 | 2.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8839 | 40.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -3.14*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9794 | 6.98*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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