V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
240.27%
increased by 27.36%
1 Week
239.51%
increased by 26.60%
1 Month
236.91%
increased by 24.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 9.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1384 | 23.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9003 | 191.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1274 | -11.19*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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