V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
257.32%
decreased by 17.94%
1 Week
253.02%
decreased by 22.24%
1 Month
240.86%
decreased by 34.40%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2445 | 8.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1356 | 12.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9529 | 238.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1607 | 14.61*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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