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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

224.98%

increased by 26.33%

1 Week

226.88%

increased by 28.23%

1 Month

229.70%

increased by 31.05%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7689
5.84***
αARCH0.1349
7.24***
βGARCH0.6913
16.49***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0206
2.35**
γ2-0.0383
-3.29***
γ30.0222
4.12***

0.826

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7689
5.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1349
7.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6913
16.49***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0206
2.35**
γ2-0.0383
-3.29***
γ30.0222
4.12***

Persistence:

0.826

Half-life:

4 days