V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
222.03%
increased by 33.27%
1 Week
225.19%
increased by 36.43%
1 Month
229.86%
increased by 41.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7682 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1348 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6916 | 16.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0207 | 2.34** |
| γ2 | -0.0383 | -3.27*** |
| γ3 | 0.0220 | 4.04*** |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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