V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
224.98%
increased by 26.33%
1 Week
226.88%
increased by 28.23%
1 Month
229.70%
increased by 31.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7689 | 5.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1349 | 7.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6913 | 16.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0206 | 2.35** |
| γ2 | -0.0383 | -3.29*** |
| γ3 | 0.0222 | 4.12*** |
0.826
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7689 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1349 | 7.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6913 | 16.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0206 | 2.35** |
| γ2 | -0.0383 | -3.29*** |
| γ3 | 0.0222 | 4.12*** |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
Other CBOE S&P 500 Spot Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices