V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
401.81%
decreased by 2.03%
1 Week
401.52%
decreased by 2.32%
1 Month
400.40%
decreased by 3.44%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0184 | 4.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9823 | 435.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0184 | -2.54** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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