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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

384.05%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Week

384.00%

decreased by 1.90%

1 Month

383.83%

decreased by 2.07%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0188
5.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9820
429.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0188
-2.60***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days