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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

407.99%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Week

407.60%

decreased by 2.49%

1 Month

406.16%

decreased by 3.93%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0185
4.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9823
433.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0185
-2.52**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days