V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
367.61%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Week
367.74%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Month
368.22%
decreased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.75 |
| αARCH | 0.0205 | 1.37 |
| βGARCH | 0.9808 | 103.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0205 | -0.69 |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.75 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0205 | 1.37 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9808 | 103.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0205 | -0.69 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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