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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

401.81%

decreased by 2.03%

1 Week

401.52%

decreased by 2.32%

1 Month

400.40%

decreased by 3.44%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0184
4.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9823
435.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0184
-2.54**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days