CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
407.99%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Week
407.60%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Month
406.16%
decreased by 3.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 4.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9823 | 433.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0185 | -2.52** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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