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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

367.61%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Week

367.74%

decreased by 1.72%

1 Month

368.22%

decreased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.75
αARCH0.0205
1.37
βGARCH0.9808
103.14***
γleverage-0.0205
-0.69

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.75
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0205
1.37
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9808
103.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0205
-0.69

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days