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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

384.51%

decreased by 1.90%

1 Week

384.42%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Month

384.09%

decreased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 02:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.76
αARCH0.0191
1.30
βGARCH0.9817
106.22***
γleverage-0.0191
-0.66

0.991

Persistence

79d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0191
1.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9817
106.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0191
-0.66

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days