V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
450.63%
1 Week
437.74%
1 Month
416.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.0699 | 3.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8039 | 9.81*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -120.63*** |
| δpower | 0.5795 | 2.17** |
0.846
Persistence4d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0699 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8039 | 9.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -120.63*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5795 | 2.17** |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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