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CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

450.63%

increased by 73.90%

1 Week

437.74%

increased by 61.01%

1 Month

416.78%

increased by 40.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifeδ = 0.58 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.29
αARCH0.0699
3.33***
βGARCH0.8039
9.81***
γleverage-1.0000
-120.63***
δpower0.5795
2.17**

0.846

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0699
3.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8039
9.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-120.63***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5795
2.17**

Persistence:

0.846

Half-life:

4 days