V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
438.53%
increased by 74.99%
1 Week
400.05%
increased by 36.51%
1 Month
390.62%
increased by 27.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7602 | 9.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.1410 | 3.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0675 | -1.89* |
0.141
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7602 | 9.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1410 | 3.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0675 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.141
Half-life:
0 days
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