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V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

438.53%

increased by 74.99%

1 Week

400.05%

increased by 36.51%

1 Month

390.62%

increased by 27.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7602
9.92***
αARCH0.1410
3.21***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0675
-1.89*

0.141

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7602
9.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1410
3.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0675
-1.89*

Persistence:

0.141

Half-life:

0 days