Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

39.41%

increased by 0.60%

1 Week

42.30%

increased by 3.49%

1 Month

48.61%

increased by 9.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.4374
10.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1869
24.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9189
122.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8720
9.83***

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days