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CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

36.98%

decreased by 3.67%

1 Week

40.40%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

47.70%

increased by 7.05%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.4736
10.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1868
24.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9192
122.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8868
9.77***

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days