V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
27.15%
1 Week
28.69%
1 Month
31.92%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 44% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1845 | 17.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2864 | 37.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6574 | 76.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2908 | -17.42*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6137 | 15.55*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
Other CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on Volatility Indices