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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

27.15%

decreased by 5.12%

1 Week

28.69%

decreased by 3.58%

1 Month

31.92%

decreased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 26, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 44% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1845
17.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2864
37.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6574
76.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2908
-17.42***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6137
15.55***

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days