V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.82%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
36.30%
increased by 1.75%
1 Month
40.68%
increased by 6.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1437 | 9.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1443 | 17.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9362 | 231.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2129 | 26.22*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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