V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
77.67%
increased by 6.05%
1 Week
79.25%
increased by 7.63%
1 Month
82.59%
increased by 10.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2015 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2526 | 11.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2187 | 27.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7118 | 66.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0856 | -3.91*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 9.40*** |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
Other TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on Volatility Indices