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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

77.67%

increased by 6.05%

1 Week

79.25%

increased by 7.63%

1 Month

82.59%

increased by 10.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2015 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2526
11.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2187
27.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7118
66.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0856
-3.91***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
9.40***

Persistence:

0.891

Half-life:

6 days