V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
103.45%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Week
103.77%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Month
105.01%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2015 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 248% more than negative returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3052 | 9.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 16.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9381 | 395.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0641 | -10.15*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
170 days
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