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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

103.45%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Week

103.77%

decreased by 1.45%

1 Month

105.01%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2015 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 248% more than negative returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3052
9.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0899
16.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9381
395.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0641
-10.15***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days