V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Monday, August 17th, 2026):
1 Day
69.51%
1 Week
75.00%
1 Month
84.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7816 | 10.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1762 | 5.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7036 | 15.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.42 |
0.880
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7816 | 10.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1762 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7036 | 15.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.42 |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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