V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Monday, August 17th, 2026):
1 Day
44.63%
1 Week
50.08%
1 Month
60.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.64) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3685 | 5.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.1648 | 7.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7474 | 29.38*** |
| γleverage | -1.6417 | -4.52*** |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3685 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1648 | 7.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7474 | 29.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.6417 | -4.52*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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