V-Lab
CBOE Realized Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
46.19%
increased by 2.15%
1 Week
45.43%
increased by 1.39%
1 Month
45.27%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9333 | 7.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0633 | 1.61 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0484 | 1.22 |
| γ2 | -0.0969 | -1.53 |
| γ3 | 0.0868 | 1.70* |
| γ4 | -0.0552 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.063
Half-life:
0 days
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