V-Lab
CBOE Realized Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
46.61%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
47.69%
increased by 1.26%
1 Month
47.91%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8111 | 9.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0648 | 1.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0143 | -1.35 |
| γ2 | 0.0275 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.065
Half-life:
0 days
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