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V-Lab

CBOE Realized Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

46.61%

increased by 0.18%

1 Week

47.69%

increased by 1.26%

1 Month

47.91%

increased by 1.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Realized Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 1, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8111
9.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0648
1.56
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0143
-1.35
γ20.0275
1.34

Persistence:

0.065

Half-life:

0 days