V-Lab
PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
2.67%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.69%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
2.77%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 334 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~334 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.1184 | 2.22** |
| βGARCH | 0.8650 | 47.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0291 | 0.37 |
0.998
Persistence334d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1184 | 2.22** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 47.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0291 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
334 days
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