V-Lab
PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
2.11%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.14%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.25%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 289 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~289 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 4.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1186 | 2.22** |
| βGARCH | 0.8647 | 47.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0286 | 0.36 |
0.998
Persistence289d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 4.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1186 | 2.22** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8647 | 47.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0286 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
289 days
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