PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.42%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
1.43%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
1.44%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7979 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1495 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7831 | 25.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3658 | -0.88 |
| γ2 | 0.2778 | 0.44 |
| γ3 | 0.3630 | 0.88 |
| γ4 | -0.8845 | -2.26** |
| γ5 | 1.6356 | 4.52*** |
| γ6 | -1.7367 | -5.01*** |
| γ7 | 0.9133 | 2.50** |
| γ8 | -0.5503 | -0.95 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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