V-Lab
PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
2.11%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.07%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.99%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8021 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1465 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7877 | 26.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3590 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.2813 | 0.46 |
| γ3 | 0.3289 | 0.81 |
| γ4 | -0.8188 | -2.11** |
| γ5 | 1.5533 | 4.38*** |
| γ6 | -1.6806 | -5.13*** |
| γ7 | 0.8392 | 2.41** |
| γ8 | -0.1917 | -0.34 |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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