V-Lab
PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
2.83%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
2.84%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
2.91%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0003 | 3.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1430 | 5.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8508 | 40.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0215 | 1.36 |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1430 | 5.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8508 | 40.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0215 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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