PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.11%
increased by 2.48%
1 Week
4.11%
increased by 2.48%
1 Month
4.11%
increased by 2.48%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 12.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1443 | 22.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8498 | 161.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0210 | 5.31*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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