V-Lab
PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
2.18%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
2.21%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.31%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 247 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 1.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1335 | 5.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8647 | 43.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0546 | 0.49 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9721 | 5.57*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
247 days
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