PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.64%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
1.67%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
1.82%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 301 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 25% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 4.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1347 | 22.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8639 | 171.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0558 | 1.99** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9749 | 22.09*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
301 days
Other PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs