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V-Lab

PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

2.50%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

2.45%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

2.28%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8102
4.46***
αARCH0.1442
4.57***
βGARCH0.7925
26.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.3483
-0.86
γ20.2715
0.44
γ30.3236
0.79
γ4-0.8038
-2.05**
γ51.5303
4.27***
γ6-1.6633
-5.15***
γ70.8251
2.70***
γ8-0.1120
-0.54

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8102
4.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1442
4.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7925
26.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.3483
-0.86
γ20.2715
0.44
γ30.3236
0.79
γ4-0.8038
-2.05**
γ51.5303
4.27***
γ6-1.6633
-5.15***
γ70.8251
2.70***
γ8-0.1120
-0.54

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days