V-Lab
PIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
1.37%
1 Week
1.41%
1 Month
1.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2014 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 318 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.36 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 260% more than negative returns
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 0.80 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 2.12** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9259 | 40.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2651 | -2.45** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3581 | 4.82*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
318 days
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