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V-Lab

COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.71%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

22.63%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

22.32%

decreased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 75% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0134
11.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0558
14.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9460
303.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0240
-4.67***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days