V-Lab
COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
23.43%
increased by 0.95%
1 Week
23.33%
increased by 0.85%
1 Month
22.99%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 69 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 69 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0133 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 3.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9462 | 76.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0240 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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