COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
17.13%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
17.15%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
17.24%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0133 | 2.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0555 | 3.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9465 | 76.47*** |
| γleverage | -0.0241 | -1.19 |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0133 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0555 | 3.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9465 | 76.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0241 | -1.19 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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