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V-Lab

COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

18.81%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

18.80%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

18.76%

increased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0133
2.96***
αARCH0.0556
3.64***
βGARCH0.9464
76.28***
γleverage-0.0241
-1.19

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0133
2.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0556
3.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9464
76.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0241
-1.19

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days