V-Lab
COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
22.71%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
22.63%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
22.32%
decreased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 75% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0134 | 11.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0558 | 14.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9460 | 303.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0240 | -4.67*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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