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V-Lab

COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

24.26%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

24.15%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

23.74%

decreased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 76% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0136
11.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0563
14.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9456
301.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0244
-4.72***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days