V-Lab
COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.78%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
20.73%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
20.55%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0134 | 2.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0557 | 3.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9461 | 75.97*** |
| γleverage | -0.0239 | -1.17 |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0134 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 75.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0239 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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