COMEX Gold GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.81%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
18.80%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
18.76%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0133 | 2.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0556 | 3.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9464 | 76.28*** |
| γleverage | -0.0241 | -1.19 |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0133 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 3.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9464 | 76.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0241 | -1.19 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities