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V-Lab

COMEX Gold Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

17.58%

decreased by 2.80%

1 Week

17.78%

decreased by 2.60%

1 Month

18.27%

decreased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Gold APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 23% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1110
5.40***
αARCH0.2973
13.05***
βGARCH0.6352
17.48***
γleverage-0.0555
-2.08**
δpower1.8700
7.50***

0.920

Persistence

8d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1110
5.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2973
13.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6352
17.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0555
-2.08**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8700
7.50***

Persistence:

0.920

Half-life:

8 days