V-Lab
COMEX Gold Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.58%
decreased by 2.80%
1 Week
17.78%
decreased by 2.60%
1 Month
18.27%
decreased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
APMEM Model
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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 23% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1110 | 5.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.2973 | 13.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6352 | 17.48*** |
| γleverage | -0.0555 | -2.08** |
| δpower | 1.8700 | 7.50*** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeμ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1110 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2973 | 13.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6352 | 17.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0555 | -2.08** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8700 | 7.50*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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