S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
45.01%
increased by 1.59%
1 Week
44.93%
increased by 1.51%
1 Month
44.63%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 48% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0631 | 24.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 15.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9075 | 430.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0320 | 4.65*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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