V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
43.27%
increased by 1.52%
1 Week
43.23%
increased by 1.48%
1 Month
43.07%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0620 | 6.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0668 | 4.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9083 | 109.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.0312 | 1.14 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0620 | 6.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 4.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 109.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0312 | 1.14 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
Other S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities