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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

51.53%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Week

51.36%

decreased by 2.27%

1 Month

50.70%

decreased by 2.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 47% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0620
24.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0668
16.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9083
436.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0314
4.59***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days