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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

39.47%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

39.50%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

39.60%

decreased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0621
6.18***
αARCH0.0667
4.05***
βGARCH0.9083
109.18***
γleverage0.0311
1.14

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0621
6.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0667
4.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9083
109.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0311
1.14

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days