Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

45.01%

increased by 1.59%

1 Week

44.93%

increased by 1.51%

1 Month

44.63%

increased by 1.21%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 48% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0631
24.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0668
15.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9075
430.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0320
4.65***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days