S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
51.24%
decreased by 2.31%
1 Week
51.07%
decreased by 2.48%
1 Month
50.45%
decreased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:42 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0620 | 6.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0674 | 4.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9083 | 109.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.0301 | 1.11 |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0620 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 4.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 109.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0301 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
Other S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities