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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

43.27%

increased by 1.52%

1 Week

43.23%

increased by 1.48%

1 Month

43.07%

increased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0620
6.17***
αARCH0.0668
4.05***
βGARCH0.9083
109.22***
γleverage0.0312
1.14

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0620
6.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0668
4.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9083
109.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0312
1.14

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days