V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
62.57%
decreased by 2.73%
1 Week
62.24%
decreased by 3.06%
1 Month
60.98%
decreased by 4.32%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 48% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0619 | 24.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0664 | 16.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9084 | 435.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0318 | 4.67*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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