V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.79%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
43.73%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Month
43.54%
decreased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 47% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0625 | 24.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0669 | 16.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9080 | 434.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0314 | 4.59*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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