V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
39.47%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
39.50%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Month
39.60%
decreased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0621 | 6.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0667 | 4.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9083 | 109.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0311 | 1.14 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0621 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0667 | 4.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 109.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0311 | 1.14 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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