S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
23.12%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
23.27%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
23.83%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0357 | 5.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0550 | 4.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9225 | 106.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.0246 | 1.12 |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0357 | 5.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 4.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9225 | 106.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0246 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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