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S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

20.04%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

20.28%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

21.16%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0360
5.17***
αARCH0.0550
4.26***
βGARCH0.9221
105.93***
γleverage0.0249
1.13

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0360
5.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0550
4.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9221
105.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0249
1.13

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days