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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

26.35%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

26.43%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

26.69%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0359
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0552
4.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9222
105.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0246
1.12

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days