S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
30.20%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
30.19%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
30.15%
decreased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 44% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0360 | 20.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0553 | 17.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 421.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0246 | 4.45*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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