Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

23.12%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

23.27%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

23.83%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0357
5.16***
αARCH0.0550
4.27***
βGARCH0.9225
106.25***
γleverage0.0246
1.12

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0357
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0550
4.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9225
106.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0246
1.12

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days