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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

36.22%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

36.11%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Month

35.68%

decreased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0354
20.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0551
17.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9226
426.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0245
4.47***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days