V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
36.22%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
36.11%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
35.68%
decreased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0354 | 20.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 17.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9226 | 426.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0245 | 4.47*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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