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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

30.20%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Week

30.19%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Month

30.15%

decreased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 44% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0360
20.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0553
17.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9221
421.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0246
4.45***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days