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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

27.93%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

28.04%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

28.44%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0396
11.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0368
14.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9530
434.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0027
0.51

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days