V-Lab
ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
25.98%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
26.13%
increased by 1.12%
1 Month
26.69%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0393 | 11.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0366 | 14.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9531 | 435.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0029 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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