ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
26.72%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
26.85%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
27.35%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0396 | 11.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 14.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9529 | 434.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0027 | 0.51 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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