ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
35.49%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
35.46%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
35.34%
decreased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0399 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0370 | 3.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9531 | 109.10*** |
| γleverage | 0.0020 | 0.09 |
0.991
Persistence78d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0399 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0370 | 3.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9531 | 109.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0020 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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