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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

33.08%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

33.09%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

33.12%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0394
2.93***
αARCH0.0366
3.56***
βGARCH0.9536
109.89***
γleverage0.0019
0.09

0.991

Persistence

78d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0394
2.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0366
3.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9536
109.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0019
0.09

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days