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V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

35.49%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

35.46%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

35.34%

decreased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0399
2.94***
αARCH0.0370
3.56***
βGARCH0.9531
109.10***
γleverage0.0020
0.09

0.991

Persistence

78d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0399
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0370
3.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9531
109.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0020
0.09

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days