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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

25.98%

increased by 0.97%

1 Week

26.13%

increased by 1.12%

1 Month

26.69%

increased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0393
11.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0366
14.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9531
435.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0029
0.55

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days