V-Lab
ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
32.08%
increased by 1.41%
1 Week
32.11%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
32.21%
increased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0401 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0371 | 3.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9528 | 108.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0022 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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