Skip to main content
V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

26.72%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

26.85%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

27.35%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0396
11.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0368
14.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9529
434.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0027
0.51

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days