V-Lab
ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
32.95%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
32.96%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
33.00%
decreased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0403 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0373 | 3.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9526 | 108.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0021 | 0.10 |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0403 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0373 | 3.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9526 | 108.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0021 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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