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V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

29.24%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

29.32%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

29.62%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:13 AM UTC

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graph of ICE US Sugar GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0398
2.93***
αARCH0.0369
3.52***
βGARCH0.9531
108.77***
γleverage0.0022
0.10

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0398
2.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0369
3.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9531
108.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0022
0.10

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days