ICE US Sugar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
34.11%
decreased by 3.06%
1 Week
32.48%
decreased by 4.69%
1 Month
29.69%
decreased by 7.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5066 | 3.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.0908 | 5.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7488 | 17.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0236 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | 0.0188 | 0.32 |
| γ4 | -0.2416 | -5.06*** |
| γ5 | 0.3785 | 8.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.3181 | -7.05*** |
| γ7 | 0.1782 | 3.96*** |
| γ8 | -0.0637 | -1.63 |
| γ9 | 0.0085 | 0.31 |
0.840
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5066 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0908 | 5.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7488 | 17.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0155 | 0.15 |
| γ2 | 0.0236 | 0.17 |
| γ3 | 0.0188 | 0.32 |
| γ4 | -0.2416 | -5.06*** |
| γ5 | 0.3785 | 8.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.3181 | -7.05*** |
| γ7 | 0.1782 | 3.96*** |
| γ8 | -0.0637 | -1.63 |
| γ9 | 0.0085 | 0.31 |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
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