V-Lab
ICE US Sugar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
26.48%
increased by 2.71%
1 Week
26.42%
increased by 2.65%
1 Month
26.31%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5158 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0889 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7573 | 18.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0187 | 0.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0162 | 0.12 |
| γ3 | 0.0316 | 0.54 |
| γ4 | -0.2588 | -5.32*** |
| γ5 | 0.3907 | 8.72*** |
| γ6 | -0.3215 | -6.86*** |
| γ7 | 0.1794 | 3.89*** |
| γ8 | -0.0731 | -1.88* |
| γ9 | 0.0231 | 0.88 |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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