ICE US Sugar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.74%
increased by 2.86%
1 Week
26.69%
increased by 2.81%
1 Month
26.60%
increased by 2.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5172 | 3.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7572 | 18.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0206 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | 0.0123 | 0.09 |
| γ3 | 0.0363 | 0.61 |
| γ4 | -0.2641 | -5.41*** |
| γ5 | 0.3933 | 8.73*** |
| γ6 | -0.3197 | -6.74*** |
| γ7 | 0.1745 | 3.76*** |
| γ8 | -0.0670 | -1.72* |
| γ9 | 0.0182 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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