CME Live Cattle Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.19%
increased by 1.11%
1 Week
19.40%
increased by 1.32%
1 Month
19.53%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4760 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1539 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4456 | 6.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2992 | -4.03*** |
| γ2 | 0.3420 | 3.03*** |
| γ3 | -0.0265 | -0.35 |
| γ4 | -0.0630 | -1.07 |
| γ5 | 0.1653 | 2.71*** |
| γ6 | -0.2207 | -3.07*** |
| γ7 | 0.0662 | 0.83 |
| γ8 | 0.1402 | 1.79* |
| γ9 | -0.1507 | -2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.600
Half-life:
1 days
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