V-Lab
CME Live Cattle Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
16.98%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
18.11%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
18.76%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4794 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1535 | 5.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4336 | 6.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2954 | -4.05*** |
| γ2 | 0.3392 | 3.06*** |
| γ3 | -0.0296 | -0.39 |
| γ4 | -0.0581 | -0.99 |
| γ5 | 0.1612 | 2.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.2226 | -3.15*** |
| γ7 | 0.0762 | 0.98 |
| γ8 | 0.1280 | 1.66* |
| γ9 | -0.1427 | -2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.587
Half-life:
1 days
Other CME Live Cattle Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities