V-Lab
CME Live Cattle Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
17.02%
increased by 0.80%
1 Week
17.84%
increased by 1.62%
1 Month
18.34%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4772 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1530 | 5.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4477 | 6.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2979 | -4.03*** |
| γ2 | 0.3409 | 3.03*** |
| γ3 | -0.0273 | -0.36 |
| γ4 | -0.0615 | -1.04 |
| γ5 | 0.1638 | 2.69*** |
| γ6 | -0.2211 | -3.09*** |
| γ7 | 0.0693 | 0.88 |
| γ8 | 0.1366 | 1.75* |
| γ9 | -0.1482 | -2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.601
Half-life:
1 days
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