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V-Lab

CME Live Cattle Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

19.19%

increased by 1.11%

1 Week

19.40%

increased by 1.32%

1 Month

19.53%

increased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Live Cattle S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4760
5.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1539
5.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4456
6.33***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.2992
-4.03***
γ20.3420
3.03***
γ3-0.0265
-0.35
γ4-0.0630
-1.07
γ50.1653
2.71***
γ6-0.2207
-3.07***
γ70.0662
0.83
γ80.1402
1.79*
γ9-0.1507
-2.74***

Persistence:

0.600

Half-life:

1 days