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CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

30.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

30.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

30.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 314 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~314 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6415
2.11**
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9978
200.68***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4388
-3.07***
γ20.6038
2.70***
γ3-0.1791
-1.33
γ4-0.0526
-0.45
γ50.1709
1.18
γ6-0.1434
-0.91
γ70.0702
0.50
γ8-0.1220
-0.98
γ90.1126
0.90
γ100.0049
0.05

0.998

Persistence

314d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6415
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9978
200.68***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4388
-3.07***
γ20.6038
2.70***
γ3-0.1791
-1.33
γ4-0.0526
-0.45
γ50.1709
1.18
γ6-0.1434
-0.91
γ70.0702
0.50
γ8-0.1220
-0.98
γ90.1126
0.90
γ100.0049
0.05

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

314 days