V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
30.98%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
30.98%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
30.98%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 361 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~361 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6781 | 2.44** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9981 | 227.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4400 | -2.89*** |
| γ2 | 0.6044 | 2.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.1739 | -1.30 |
| γ4 | -0.0609 | -0.51 |
| γ5 | 0.1773 | 1.21 |
| γ6 | -0.1486 | -0.94 |
| γ7 | 0.0773 | 0.55 |
| γ8 | -0.1316 | -1.06 |
| γ9 | 0.1225 | 0.99 |
| γ10 | -0.0027 | -0.03 |
0.998
Persistence361d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6781 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 227.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4400 | -2.89*** |
| γ2 | 0.6044 | 2.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.1739 | -1.30 |
| γ4 | -0.0609 | -0.51 |
| γ5 | 0.1773 | 1.21 |
| γ6 | -0.1486 | -0.94 |
| γ7 | 0.0773 | 0.55 |
| γ8 | -0.1316 | -1.06 |
| γ9 | 0.1225 | 0.99 |
| γ10 | -0.0027 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
361 days
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