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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

30.65%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

30.65%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

30.65%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2372
8.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.6638
-6.40***
γ20.8346
4.85***
γ3-0.1881
-1.46
γ4-0.0553
-0.46
γ50.1806
1.22
γ6-0.1510
-0.95
γ70.0817
0.60
γ8-0.1324
-1.15
γ90.1057
0.94
γ100.0221
0.25

Persistence:

0.000

Half-life:

-