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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

31.24%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

31.24%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

31.24%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 341 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6471
2.20**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9980
213.65***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4519
-3.01***
γ20.6183
2.70***
γ3-0.1762
-1.31
γ4-0.0616
-0.52
γ50.1793
1.22
γ6-0.1502
-0.95
γ70.0798
0.56
γ8-0.1352
-1.10
γ90.1257
1.02
γ10-0.0049
-0.05

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

341 days