V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
30.65%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
30.65%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
30.65%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2372 | 8.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.6638 | -6.40*** |
| γ2 | 0.8346 | 4.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.1881 | -1.46 |
| γ4 | -0.0553 | -0.46 |
| γ5 | 0.1806 | 1.22 |
| γ6 | -0.1510 | -0.95 |
| γ7 | 0.0817 | 0.60 |
| γ8 | -0.1324 | -1.15 |
| γ9 | 0.1057 | 0.94 |
| γ10 | 0.0221 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.000
Half-life:
-
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