CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
29.29%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
29.29%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
29.29%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 371 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6790 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9981 | 225.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4470 | -2.83*** |
| γ2 | 0.6097 | 2.59*** |
| γ3 | -0.1656 | -1.23 |
| γ4 | -0.0742 | -0.61 |
| γ5 | 0.1881 | 1.25 |
| γ6 | -0.1554 | -0.96 |
| γ7 | 0.0853 | 0.59 |
| γ8 | -0.1368 | -1.08 |
| γ9 | 0.1093 | 0.85 |
| γ10 | 0.0201 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
371 days
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