CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
32.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
32.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
32.10%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 351 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~351 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6684 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9980 | 225.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4402 | -2.97*** |
| γ2 | 0.6073 | 2.70*** |
| γ3 | -0.1820 | -1.37 |
| γ4 | -0.0502 | -0.43 |
| γ5 | 0.1690 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -0.1435 | -0.92 |
| γ7 | 0.0705 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -0.1253 | -1.02 |
| γ9 | 0.1273 | 1.05 |
| γ10 | -0.0143 | -0.15 |
0.998
Persistence351d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6684 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9980 | 225.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4402 | -2.97*** |
| γ2 | 0.6073 | 2.70*** |
| γ3 | -0.1820 | -1.37 |
| γ4 | -0.0502 | -0.43 |
| γ5 | 0.1690 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -0.1435 | -0.92 |
| γ7 | 0.0705 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -0.1253 | -1.02 |
| γ9 | 0.1273 | 1.05 |
| γ10 | -0.0143 | -0.15 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
351 days
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