V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
31.24%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
31.24%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
31.24%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 341 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6471 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9980 | 213.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4519 | -3.01*** |
| γ2 | 0.6183 | 2.70*** |
| γ3 | -0.1762 | -1.31 |
| γ4 | -0.0616 | -0.52 |
| γ5 | 0.1793 | 1.22 |
| γ6 | -0.1502 | -0.95 |
| γ7 | 0.0798 | 0.56 |
| γ8 | -0.1352 | -1.10 |
| γ9 | 0.1257 | 1.02 |
| γ10 | -0.0049 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
341 days
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