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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

29.29%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

29.29%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

29.29%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 371 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6790
2.46**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9981
225.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4470
-2.83***
γ20.6097
2.59***
γ3-0.1656
-1.23
γ4-0.0742
-0.61
γ50.1881
1.25
γ6-0.1554
-0.96
γ70.0853
0.59
γ8-0.1368
-1.08
γ90.1093
0.85
γ100.0201
0.19

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

371 days