CME Lean Hogs Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
30.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
30.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
30.28%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 314 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~314 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6415 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9978 | 200.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4388 | -3.07*** |
| γ2 | 0.6038 | 2.70*** |
| γ3 | -0.1791 | -1.33 |
| γ4 | -0.0526 | -0.45 |
| γ5 | 0.1709 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -0.1434 | -0.91 |
| γ7 | 0.0702 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -0.1220 | -0.98 |
| γ9 | 0.1126 | 0.90 |
| γ10 | 0.0049 | 0.05 |
0.998
Persistence314d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6415 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 200.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4388 | -3.07*** |
| γ2 | 0.6038 | 2.70*** |
| γ3 | -0.1791 | -1.33 |
| γ4 | -0.0526 | -0.45 |
| γ5 | 0.1709 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -0.1434 | -0.91 |
| γ7 | 0.0702 | 0.50 |
| γ8 | -0.1220 | -0.98 |
| γ9 | 0.1126 | 0.90 |
| γ10 | 0.0049 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
314 days
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